Service operation management Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Service operation management - Assignment Exampler Distribution Centre 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Darwin 18 15 15 13 12 12 14 13 13 13 12 10 11 11.8 11.56 11.27 Brisbane 22 25 20 22 21 20 23 20 20 21 23 20 21 21 21.2 21.24 Sydney 48 47 49 52 53 53 55 56 58 61 63 66 68 63.2 64.24 64.89 Adelaide 36 38 39 42 38 41 42 44 45 47 47 51 52 48.4 49.08 49.5 Hobart 18 20 22 18 22 19 18 20 21 19 21 20 18 19.8 19.56 19.67 b. Demand Forecasting using Exponential Smoothing Model is shown below. Table1.3 shows the vaticination model for alpha as .2 while Table 1.4 shows the forecasting model for alpha as .4. ... Week Number Distribution Centre 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Darwin literal 18 15 15 13 12 12 14 13 13 13 12 10 11 Forecast 16 16.8 16.08 15.65 14.59 13.55 12.93 13.36 13.22 13.13 13.08 12.65 11.59 11.35 11.21 11.13 Brisbane Actual 22 25 20 22 21 20 23 20 20 21 23 20 21 Forecast 22.33 22.2 23.32 21.99 22 21.6 20.96 21.77 21.06 20.64 20.78 21.67 21 21 21 21 Syd ney Actual 48 47 49 52 53 53 55 56 58 61 63 66 68 Forecast 48 48 47.8 48.04 48.83 49.67 50.33 51.27 52.21 53.37 54.9 56.52 58.41 62.25 64.55 65.93 Adelaide Actual 36 38 39 42 38 41 42 44 45 47 47 51 52 Forecast 37.67 37.33 37.47 37.77 38.62 38.49 39 39.6 40.48 41.38 42.51 43.4 44.92 47.75 49.45 50.47 Hobart Actual 18 20 22 18 22 19 18 20 21 19 21 20 18 Forecast 20 19.6 19.68 20.14 19.72 20.17 19.94 19.55 19.64 19.91 19.73 19.98 19.99 19.19 18.72 18.43 c. Exponential smoothing is generally preferred over piteous average forecasting method because it takes into account both the actual set and the previous forecasts. Also the mean settle error received in the case of exponential smoothing is generally less as compared to moving average method. surrounded by the two moving average methods, the 5 week moving average forecasting generally proves to be more accurate than the 3 period moving average forecasting because it takes into account large historical data. Among the expo nential smoothing methods, the optimal value of alpha is generally found out by minimizing the mean square error through excel solver. d. Besides past demand several other factors might come into play in forecasting future demand. These factors could lay from local to global. Local factors may include current market share of SB Coffee in each distribution centre, population of each geography,